THE ARMCHAIR GM FIELD GUIDE VOL. 01 / THE GRADE

AN INTERACTIVE EXPLAINER

What makes
a good GM?

A contender needs a final piece. A rebuilding team needs a future. A good grade should know the difference.

Step into the front office

01 — FIRST, DEFINE SUCCESS

Same roster.
Different assignment.

Winning now and building for later ask different things of a front office. Choose a roster, then change its mandate to see what matters most.

CHOOSE A TEACHING ROSTER

The next chapter

Young core. Clean books. A drawer full of picks.

7first-round picks
4years of core control

Illustrative inputs. These are fictional teaching rosters, not NBA team grades. Pillar scores—including each mandate’s Timeline score—are authored examples. Weights and aggregation use the current engine.

WHAT IS THE MANDATE?

Rebuilding

Did the GM create a credible foundation for the franchise's next competitive era?

81.2/ 100 BASE SCORE

Score × mandate weight = points. Switch mandates to compare the weights.

PILLARSCOREWEIGHTPOINTS

Competitive strength

Star power, the starting five, rotation quality, and two-way balance measure the basketball on the floor.

38 5% 1.9

Roster construction

Positions, skills, and functional depth look beyond collecting talent to building a complete roster.

72 15% 10.8

Contract health

Value, future risk, mobility, and team control describe the quality of the contracts on the books.

78 15% 11.7

Cap & flexibility

Cap position, tax exposure, future commitments, and transaction tools measure room to maneuver.

84 15% 12.6

Asset management

Draft capital, pick quality, optionality, and eligible exchange value measure the resources behind the roster.

90 30% 27.0

Timeline alignment

Core age, prime windows, continuity, and development are evaluated against the chosen mandate.

86 20% 17.2

Bars share a 0–40 point scale. The total uses unrounded contributions, before any plausibility adjustment.

One intentional exception. Timeline Alignment changes its targets with the mandate. Here, the ideal core age is 19–25. The other five pillar scores stay fixed.

02 — LOOK AT THE WHOLE FRANCHISE

Six lenses.
One bigger picture.

A star can change your ceiling. A contract can close a door. The grade follows both—and the choices in between.

PILLAR 01 / Competitive strength

Can this team win?

Star power, the starting five, rotation quality, and two-way balance measure the basketball on the floor.

Share of the base grade under each mandate
Championship Push Run It Back Ascending Retool Selling RebuildingSelected
35% 25% 20% 15% 5% 5%

Scroll across to compare all six mandates →

Explore this pillar

What goes into the number

Four views of the rotation: star power, starting-five quality, rotation quality, and offensive/defensive balance. Player impact is adjusted for the evidence behind it and compared with a frozen league benchmark.

Moves that can help

Illustrative directions, not guaranteed score increases. The full before-and-after state determines the result.

Upgrade a real rotation role

Replace a low-impact rotation player with a stronger two-way contributor, then assign that player meaningful minutes. The improvement depends on who leaves the rotation and how the minutes change.

Strengthen the weaker side

Add a defender to an offense-heavy lineup, or a creator to a defense-first group. Two-Way Balance puts more emphasis on the weaker side of the team.

The tradeoff. A famous name is not an automatic upgrade. The model evaluates impact, minutes, reliability, and balance. Acquiring a star can also cost contract flexibility or draft capital.

PILLAR 02 / Roster construction

Do the pieces fit?

Positions, skills, and functional depth look beyond collecting talent to building a complete roster.

Share of the base grade under each mandate
Championship Push Run It Back Ascending Retool Selling RebuildingSelected
20% 20% 15% 15% 5% 15%

Scroll across to compare all six mandates →

Explore this pillar

What goes into the number

Roster completeness, position coverage, skill coverage, and functional depth. This pillar evaluates the full eligible roster, including whether the team has enough creation, shooting, defense, rim protection, and rebounding.

Moves that can help

Illustrative directions, not guaranteed score increases. The full before-and-after state determines the result.

Fill a missing skill

If the roster lacks ballhandling, add a credible playmaker. If it has no rim protection, add a player whose defensive evidence addresses that gap.

Build a second way to play

Add a capable backup at an exposed position or another player who can supply a scarce skill. Useful redundancy matters when too much of a skill sits with one player.

The tradeoff. Adding another player does not guarantee more depth credit. Experience, position eligibility, skill evidence, and existing coverage matter. A roster can also become over-concentrated at one position.

PILLAR 03 / Contract health

Is the money well spent?

Value, future risk, mobility, and team control describe the quality of the contracts on the books.

Share of the base grade under each mandate
Championship Push Run It Back Ascending Retool Selling RebuildingSelected
10% 15% 15% 20% 10% 15%

Scroll across to compare all six mandates →

Explore this pillar

What goes into the number

Contract value, long-term risk, mobility, and optionality. The model compares salaries with confidence-adjusted expected value, checks future guaranteed exposure, and evaluates how easily the team can move or exit its commitments.

Moves that can help

Illustrative directions, not guaranteed score increases. The full before-and-after state determines the result.

Keep useful production at a fair price

A plausible contract below the model’s confidence-adjusted expected salary can improve contract value. A cheaper player is only a bargain relative to what that player contributes.

Reduce avoidable future risk

Exchange a burdensome multi-year guarantee for a less risky commitment, or negotiate a team-controlled option where realistic. The cost of that transaction still belongs in the other pillars.

The tradeoff. Low payroll alone does not mean healthy contracts. Expiring deals receive neutral optionality rather than a windfall, and rookie-contract policy and uncertain salary estimates can affect the result.

PILLAR 04 / Cap & flexibility

What can you do next?

Cap position, tax exposure, future commitments, and transaction tools measure room to maneuver.

Share of the base grade under each mandate
Championship Push Run It Back Ascending Retool Selling RebuildingSelected
10% 15% 15% 20% 20% 15%

Scroll across to compare all six mandates →

Explore this pillar

What goes into the number

Current cap position, tax/apron exposure, future flexibility, and transaction flexibility. The model looks at commitments and dead money as well as usable exceptions, trade restrictions, and roster room.

Moves that can help

Illustrative directions, not guaranteed score increases. The full before-and-after state determines the result.

Create room for the next move

Reduce future guaranteed commitments without replacing them with equivalent dead money. The team gains future spending room only after the relevant charges are included.

Recover usable transaction tools

A legal move below an apron threshold may restore tools the team could not use before. The benefit depends on the actual cap state and restrictions, not just headline payroll.

The tradeoff. Waiving a guaranteed contract does not make the salary disappear. Dead money still matters. Cap room, exceptions, and trade exceptions are different tools, with different rules and deadlines.

PILLAR 05 / Asset management

What is in reserve?

Draft capital, pick quality, optionality, and eligible exchange value measure the resources behind the roster.

Share of the base grade under each mandate
Championship Push Run It Back Ascending Retool Selling RebuildingSelected
5% 5% 15% 10% 40% 30%

Scroll across to compare all six mandates →

Explore this pillar

What goes into the number

Draft capital value, pick quality, asset optionality, and eligible asset exchange value. The inventory measures the rights the team actually controls, including protection terms, timing, swaps, and trade restrictions.

Moves that can help

Illustrative directions, not guaranteed score increases. The full before-and-after state determines the result.

Improve the quality of the return

A first with meaningful lottery upside can strengthen an inventory more than several low-upside pieces. Removing protections can improve the receiving team’s expected value when it opens access to better outcomes.

Untangle future obligations

Resolving a protected obligation can free future draft years for trades. Whether that improves optionality depends on the remaining rights and Stepien constraints.

The tradeoff. Pick count is not pick value. A swap is not another whole first, and a protected pick can roll into a later obligation. Provisional Asset Exchange Value may be excluded while the inventory metrics are reweighted.

INSIDE THE ASSET DRAWER

A pick is a set of possibilities.

The slot matters. So do the rights attached to it. Explore a hypothetical first-round outcome using the grader’s actual base draft-slot curve.

Base draft-slot value by selection Value falls from 100 at pick one to approximately 3 at pick sixty. The selected first-round pick is highlighted. These are model units, not dollars or a team grade. 100 50 0 1 15 30 45 60 FIRST ROUND SECOND ROUND

Base DAV units · draft slot → · curve version 1.0.0

Chosen outcomes, not forecasts. The protected-pick and swap examples below are separate rights over the same illustrative slot.

01 / A WHOLE PICK
Pick #8
75.9base DAV units

Full ownership of this selection, before time discounting or uncertainty.

02 / A PROTECTED RIGHT
The pick conveys
75.9 units received in this draft

Pick #8 falls outside the protected range, so this selection transfers to the receiving team.

03 / AN UNPROTECTED SWAP
Keep the better selection
+35.2incremental DAV units

Your pick #20 is worth 40.6 units. Swapping up adds the difference, not another whole pick.

Follow the obligation, not just the label.

For an illustrative top-4 protected first that becomes unprotected next year:

  1. Lands 5–30The first conveys now. The obligation is satisfied.
  2. Lands 1–4The original team keeps this year’s pick. The obligation rolls to an unprotected first next year.

Other agreements may roll through several years, convert to seconds, or expire. Those written terms determine the outcome. A multi-team swap may also allocate picks through a priority chain rather than a simple two-team exchange.

How the full model gets from outcomes to value

It values each possible outcome, weights it by probability, follows protection and swap terms, and discounts the year in which the asset actually arrives. The current time discount retains 92% of the same outcome’s value for each year of delay. The examples above show one outcome only; they do not value the future rollover.

Future draft position remains uncertain. Current pre-lottery official odds are still a model limitation: the implementation uses a strength-based approximation when a slot is unknown.

PILLAR 06 / Timeline alignment

Is everyone on the same clock?

Core age, prime windows, continuity, and development are evaluated against the chosen mandate.

Share of the base grade under each mandate
Championship Push Run It Back Ascending Retool Selling RebuildingSelected
20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

Scroll across to compare all six mandates →

Explore this pillar

What goes into the number

Core age fit, prime-window alignment, continuity, and the development environment. This is the intentional mandate-dependent pillar: a rebuild and a championship push ask for different age ranges, control horizons, and development roles.

Moves that can help

Illustrative directions, not guaranteed score increases. The full before-and-after state determines the result.

Give the young core a workable runway

For a rebuilding mandate, assign meaningful roles to young players while keeping enough useful veterans to support them. Merely making the roster younger does not satisfy every development target.

Keep a contender’s core together

For a championship push, preserve control of the players who anchor the rotation and add help whose productive window overlaps theirs.

The tradeoff. Younger is not always better, and more development minutes are not always better. The model uses mandate-specific target ranges. Moving toward one mandate’s target can move away from another’s.

THE PRINCIPLE
“Good” depends on
what you’re building toward.

The mandate changes the priorities. It doesn’t turn a weak roster into a strong one.

03 — OPEN THE NOTEBOOK

A grade you can
look inside.

Thirty teams. Six different jobs. Explore a published model edition, change the mandate, and follow the evidence behind every score.

A FROZEN LEAGUE EDITION

The league, through six lenses

latest version of the model

Model
avc-1.5.0
Player evidence
2025-26
Benchmark
v1.4.0
Run captured
2026-09-13
Download this edition’s data
Edition archive

These are team-position scores under the selected job, not win predictions or grades for a GM’s past decisions. The first five pillars keep their meaning; Timeline Alignment also evaluates this mandate’s targets.

Charlotte Hornets76.5#1 under this mandate
VS
Memphis Grizzlies75.1#2 under this mandate
Competitive strength
CHA 46.6
MEM 14.6
Roster construction
CHA 74.7
MEM 73.4
Contract health
CHA 63.9
MEM 67.2
Cap & flexibility
CHA 90.4
MEM 89.5
Asset management
CHA 82.5
MEM 83.5
Timeline alignment
CHA 75.3
MEM 73.8

The whole league

Sort a pillar. Select a team to inspect it below.

On smaller screens, scroll across the table to see all six pillars. Rank movement compares your previous mandate selection.

All 30 teams under Rebuilding. Scores out of 100.
Rank Team
1 46.6 74.7 63.9 90.4 82.5 75.3 76.5
2 14.6 73.4 67.2 89.5 83.5 73.8 75.1
3 90.0 85.3 69.0 84.2 63.2 72.2 73.7
4 29.8 84.8 57.7 89.0 73.1 76.8 73.5
5 67.8 77.6 65.7 85.8 74.4 66.6 73.4
6 18.4 71.0 68.7 86.7 84.4 64.2 73.0
7 97.8 75.6 63.2 40.8 72.1 87.3 70.9
8 38.3 72.6 58.3 82.1 74.8 72.0 70.7
9 19.3 66.4 65.0 90.6 73.9 70.5 70.6
10 26.5 71.3 69.3 86.9 65.5 74.4 70.0
11 51.4 77.0 69.3 85.7 55.6 73.2 68.7
12 63.3 83.1 70.8 91.5 52.3 64.3 68.5
13 0.2 68.5 61.8 86.7 60.0 79.1 66.4
14 4.0 53.2 54.8 85.7 73.3 66.9 64.6
15 16.8 79.5 55.7 84.4 47.9 72.1 62.6
16 47.2 75.2 66.3 86.0 35.0 74.0 61.8
17 66.6 71.7 64.2 67.4 50.7 55.8 60.2
18 80.2 77.1 60.1 79.8 44.1 50.2 59.8
19 9.4 68.0 60.8 86.9 41.3 68.9 59.0
20 16.7 68.0 63.7 70.7 59.9 48.5 58.9
21 70.6 70.0 64.7 85.7 29.1 63.8 58.1
22 47.3 68.0 66.5 46.4 40.3 76.7 56.9
23 72.4 65.3 66.0 56.1 45.9 49.0 55.3
24 67.0 71.5 53.5 45.5 53.8 44.8 54.0
25 57.1 77.2 67.6 91.8 22.4 43.8 53.8
26 66.5 71.4 65.1 78.2 12.8 71.6 53.7
27 74.2 67.2 55.4 81.8 20.0 45.0 49.4
28 77.8 68.7 58.2 47.1 24.5 52.0 47.7
29 76.6 64.0 62.2 45.9 13.2 69.5 47.5
30 40.3 79.8 61.3 44.0 13.9 64.6 46.9
OPEN THE SCOREBOOK

Charlotte Hornets

Roster / payroll season: 2026-27. Captured 2026-09-13. Read each pillar from evidence to score to its share of the total.

76.5 weighted base −0.0 safeguards adjustment =76.5 final score
Competitive strength 46.6 × 5% = 2.3 pts

Star power, the starting five, rotation quality, and two-way balance measure the basketball on the floor.

Star Power

51.7 / 100

The top three Star Power contributions come from Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Grayson Allen.

Eligible Player Count
9.0
Raw
2.9
Replacement Value
-1.5
Role Factor Minutes
30.0

Starting Five

34.5 / 100

Starting Five Quality combines equal contributions from Kon Knueppel, Royce O'Neale, Brandon Miller, Moussa Diabate, Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Designated Starter Count
5.0
Raw
5.1
Replacement Value
-1.5
Role Factor Minutes
28.0

Rotation Quality

48.3 / 100

Rotation Quality averages fatigue-adjusted impact across 9 rotation players and 240 assigned minutes.

Assigned Minutes
240.0
Denominator Minutes
240.0
Effective Minutes
240.0
Raw
0.8

Two Way Balance

53.4 / 100

Two-Way Balance weights the weaker defense side at 70% across 240 assigned rotation minutes.

Assigned Minutes
240.0
Denominator Minutes
240.0
Effective Minutes
240.0
Rotation Depm
0.1
Rotation Oepm
0.7
Roster construction 74.7 × 15% = 11.2 pts

Positions, skills, and functional depth look beyond collecting talent to building a complete roster.

Roster Completeness

100.0 / 100

Roster Completeness scores 18 standard contracts and 3 of 3 available two-way slots.

Maximum Standard Roster
15.0
Maximum Two Way Contracts
3.0
Minimum Standard Roster
14.0
Standard Count
18.0
Two Way Count
3.0

Position Coverage

100.0 / 100

Position Coverage gives 70% weight to the five-position average and 30% to the weakest listed position.

4 fallback input(s) used. This metric includes estimated or substitute evidence.

Average Position Score
100.0
Weakest Position Score
100.0

Skill Coverage

32.7 / 100

Skill Coverage gives 70% weight to the five-skill average and 30% to the weakest roster-wide capability.

Average Skill Score
40.7
Weakest Skill Score
14.0

Functional Depth

93.2 / 100

Functional Depth combines position depth (35%), skill redundancy (40%), and skill concentration (25%) across the entire roster.

4 fallback input(s) used. This metric includes estimated or substitute evidence.

Contract health 63.9 × 15% = 9.6 pts

Value, future risk, mobility, and team control describe the quality of the contracts on the books.

Contract Value

49.4 / 100

Contract Value compares confidence-adjusted market salary with actual salary across 21 active contracts, weighted by discounted remaining salary.

7 fallback input(s) used. This metric includes estimated or substitute evidence.

Active Contract Count
21.0
Discounted Remaining Salary
$413.1M

Long Term Risk

88.2 / 100

Long-Term Risk measures 33037722.400000002 weighted dollars of projected overpayment across 4 frozen future salary-cap seasons.

3 fallback input(s) used. This metric includes estimated or substitute evidence.

Active Contract Count
21.0
Future Risk Burden
0.0
Projected Cap Denominator
$842.3M

Contract Mobility

58.0 / 100

Contract Mobility blends marketability, salary-matching utility, term, and stored trade restrictions across 21 active contracts, including the least-mobile 25% of guaranteed remaining salary.

24 fallback input(s) used. This metric includes estimated or substitute evidence.

Active Contract Count
21.0
Current Season
2026-27
Discounted Remaining Salary
$413.1M
Guaranteed Remaining Salary
$370.3M
Low Mobility Exposure
47.2
Salary Cap
$165.0M
Weighted Mobility Average
62.6

Contract Optionality

57.1 / 100

Contract Optionality scores future team control across 21 active contracts, weighted by future salary within each contract and discounted remaining salary across the roster.

Active Contract Count
21.0
Current Season
2026-27
Discounted Remaining Salary
$413.1M
Cap & flexibility 90.4 × 15% = 13.6 pts

Cap position, tax exposure, future commitments, and transaction tools measure room to maneuver.

Current Cap Position

60.0 / 100

Current Cap Position scores the over-cap, below-tax zone using its engine-calculated threshold cushion relative to the season's salary cap.

Salary Cap
$165.0M

Tax Apron Exposure

100.0 / 100

Tax & Apron Exposure scores the over-cap, below-tax zone using the projected engine tax bill and recorded repeater assumption.

Financial Zone
over cap below tax
Projected Tax Bill
$0
Salary Cap
$165.0M
Tax Bill Ratio
0.0

Future Flexibility

96.0 / 100

Future Flexibility scores unavoidable commitments and dead money over the next three cap-state seasons, weighted 50/30/20.

Future Season Count
3.0

Transaction Flexibility

98.0 / 100

Transaction Flexibility combines the cap state's usable signing, trade, trade-exception, and roster pathways at AVC's 30/40/20/10 weights.

As Of Date
2026-08-01
Non Taxpayer Mle
$15.1M
Asset management 82.5 × 30% = 24.8 pts

Draft capital, pick quality, optionality, and eligible exchange value measure the resources behind the roster.

Draft Capital Value

97.8 / 100

Draft Capital Value percentiles 624.3611177228437 total DAV across 30 controlled assets against the frozen league inventory.

Asset Count
30.0
Total Dav
624.4

Draft capital by arrival year

2027183.2 DAV
202880.0 DAV
202988.4 DAV
203050.7 DAV
203158.7 DAV
203253.6 DAV
2033109.7 DAV

DAV is model value, not dollars. These bars include each controlled asset’s inventory value. Swap gain is shown separately below; it is already included in inventory DAV.

Draft Origin / right Inventory DAV Swap gain
2027 · R1 DAL · Whole 69.3 —
2027 · R1 CHA · Whole 51.1 —
2027 · R1 MIA · Range Part 35.5 —
2027 · R2 Swap pool · Swap Outcome 13.6 13.6
2027 · R2 MEM · Whole 13.7 —
2028 · R1 Swap pool · Swap Outcome 51.1 4.4
2028 · R2 Swap pool · Swap Outcome 11.1 1.5
2028 · R2 ORL · Whole 9.5 —
2028 · R2 HOU · Whole 8.3 —
2029 · R1 Swap pool · Swap Outcome 26.8 26.8
2029 · R1 CHA · Whole 42.9 —
2029 · R2 Swap pool · Swap Outcome 10.0 10.0
2029 · R2 CHA · Whole 8.8 —
2030 · R1 Swap pool · Swap Outcome 33.2 1.9
2030 · R2 Swap pool · Swap Outcome 9.9 9.9
2030 · R2 CHA · Range Part 7.7 —
2031 · R1 CHA · Whole 36.2 —
2031 · R2 CHA · Whole 7.4 —
2031 · R2 MIL · Whole 7.7 —
2031 · R2 PHX · Whole 7.4 —
2032 · R1 CHA · Whole 33.3 —
2032 · R2 MIN · Whole 6.6 —
2032 · R2 MIL · Whole 7.0 —
2032 · R2 CHA · Whole 6.8 —
2033 · R1 CHA · Whole 30.6 —
2033 · R1 MIN · Whole 30.0 —
2033 · R1 PHX · Whole 30.7 —
2033 · R2 CHA · Whole 6.2 —
2033 · R2 HOU · Whole 6.1 —
2033 · R2 MIN · Whole 6.1 —
How protections and swaps change value

Pick Quality

87.0 / 100

Pick Quality combines frozen-league percentiles for the best asset and top three with 2.7499999999999996 Premium Asset Units.

Best Asset Raw
69.3
Premium Asset Units
2.7
Top Three Raw
60.2

Asset Optionality

92.0 / 100

Asset Optionality combines 7 immediately tradable firsts, 5 clean first-round years, and normalized encumbrance control.

Clean First Round Years
5.0
Tradable First Capacity
7.0

Asset Exchange Value

50.0 / 100

Asset Exchange Value is neutral because the scenario contains no qualifying transactions.

Transaction Count
0.0
Timeline alignment 75.3 × 20% = 15.1 pts

Core age, prime windows, continuity, and development are evaluated against the chosen mandate.

Core Age Fit

83.8 / 100

Core players are scored against Rebuilding's ideal age range.

Mandate
rebuilding

Prime Window Alignment

77.8 / 100

Prime Window Alignment combines mandate timing and core synchronization.

Mandate
rebuilding
Prime Midpoint
27.5

Core Continuity

49.8 / 100

Core Continuity measures franchise control through the 5-season mandate window.

2 fallback input(s) used. This metric includes estimated or substitute evidence.

Continuity Horizon
5.0
Mandate
rebuilding

Development Environment

91.3 / 100

Development Environment balances mandate-appropriate youth minutes, veterans, and meaningful young roles.

Mandate
rebuilding
Rotation Minutes
240.0
The roster behind this score
Player Position Season salary
Coby White PG $26.8M
Naz Reid C $23.3M
Grayson Allen SG $18.1M
Brandon Miller SF $15.1M
Grant Williams PF $14.3M
Dorian Finney-Smith SF $13.3M
Royce O'Neale PF $10.9M
Kon Knueppel SG $10.5M
Tidjane Salaun PF $8.2M
Tre Mann PG $8.0M
Hannes Steinbach PF $5.2M
Christian Anderson Jr. PG $4.3M
Pat Connaughton SG $3.8M
Liam McNeeley SF $2.9M
Moussa Diabate C $2.5M
Mouhamadou Gueye PF $2.4M
Sion James SF $2.4M
Ryan Kalkbrenner C $2.4M
Michael Ajayi SG $678K
Kylan Boswell PG $678K
PJ Hall C $678K

Scores are shown to one decimal; displayed sums may differ slightly due to rounding. An edition preserves these results and explanations as published. It does not claim to reconstruct a historical NBA season. Estimated inputs and model assumptions remain part of the assessment; community ratings will be a separate perspective.

Methodology, limitations & credits

The six-pillar framework was developed with AVC. This first edition illustrates how mandate weighting works; it does not evaluate a submitted scenario or reconstruct an NBA season.

Real grades also depend on evidence quality, provisional metrics, and plausibility safeguards. Some uncalibrated Asset Exchange Value results are excluded and their pillar weights renormalized. That behavior is not simulated in these teaching inputs.

Editorial inspiration: The Pudding’s NBA Redrafted and The Ringer’s Trade Value Rankings. Illustrations are original to this guide.

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